Mr. Fibs - 4/27/23 Market Analysis

GDP and Jobless Claims Numbers are Here

Good morning traders and investors. As I am writing this, SPY is up roughly $2 from yesterday’s close. At 8:30 EST the following economic data was released:

US GDP QOQ ADVANCE ACTUAL 1.1% (FORECAST 1.9%, PREVIOUS 2.6%)

US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 230K (FORECAST 248K, PREVIOUS 245K)

US CONTINUED JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 1.858M (FORECAST 1.87M, PREVIOUS 1.865M)

Today's economic data release showed that the US GDP grew by 1.1% on a quarterly basis, falling short of the estimated 1.9% and the previous 2.6%. This could have a negative impact on the stock market, as investors tend to prefer stronger economic growth. However, this miss could be due to some of the supply chain issues and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which may provide some reassurance to the market that this is not necessarily indicative of a weak economy.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims came in at 230K, beating the forecast of 248K and the previous 245K. Continuing jobless claims also fell to 1.858M, compared to the estimated 1.87M and the previous 1.865M. This could indicate a positive trend in the labor market, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Overall, the market's reaction to today's economic data release is likely to be mixed, with a potential negative impact from the lower-than-expected GDP growth. The biggest factor is still earnings and how the market reacts to the data today. We didn’t get the biggest move following the data release. I am very cautious on days like today when people try to talk about interpreting “good news and bad news.” Our main focus is trading actionable setups with probabilities that favor us, why I haven’t been interested in predicting where the market is heading among all the earnings releases and news releases.

GDP REPORT

UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT

In today’s SPY levels I will explain some of the new levels today and how I set myself up to trade SPY 0.00%↑ with gaps above and below now.

Levels and Analysis

SPY 0.00%↑