Mr. Fibs - 6/23/24 Market Analysis

Hey traders and investors. In today’s post, I wanted to highlight some key updates and levels as I step away for a short bit to take some vacation/break time. I will still be active in the markets, but won’t be spending as much time writing or on social media. Keep a look out in the Discord and X community for any trade alerts or live updates from me.

Since we haven’t had the type of action I usually would like to derive new high probability levels based on confluence between various fib levels, I will share some of the key levels I’m watching on the US500 CFD. Works the best since we don’t have to adjust to the contract roll gap and these are extensions and fibs I’ve had prepped for a while.

This week we have consumer confidence, new home sales, GDP revision, PCE, and Chicago PMI as some of the more important data releases. We know that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE. So as usual, a lot of focus will be on those numbers. Hard to know how much action, the range, or the type of moves we get ahead of the data. With that being so and us remaining with fairly bullish price action as of late, the key question for day traders is whether or not we can get continuation or are waiting for data or momentum to get the next obvious directional setup.

Notable earnings include FDX, CCL, MU, BB, PAYX, GIS, LEVI, NKE, WBA, MKC, and AOUT.

Economic Calendar

MONDAY, JUNE 24

3:00 am Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speech in Rome

8:30 am Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee TV appearance

2:00 pm San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

TUESDAY, JUNE 25

7:00 am Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speech in London

9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)

10:00 am Consumer confidence

12:00 pm Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speech

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26

10:00 am New home sales

THURSDAY, JUNE 27

8:30 am Initial jobless claims

8:30 am GDP (2nd revision)

8:30 am Durable-goods orders

8:30 am Durable-goods minus transportation

10:00 am Pending home sales

FRIDAY, JUNE 28

6:00 am Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech in Paris

8:30 am Personal income (nominal)

8:30 am Personal spending (nominal)

8:30 am PCE index

8:30 am PCE (year-over-year)

8:30 am Core PCE index

8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year)

9:45 am Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)

10:00 am Consumer sentiment (final)

12:00 pm Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speech

Ideally, I would want to see a bullish start to the week with leaders continuing to try to push the market forward. There may be some rotation to value out of tech since Semis have come into some local resistance as of last week. I think the names in the semiconductor can still have upside potential, but as I explained with the names I shared in the discord last week, easier to trade when they are at the obvious key levels on a retracement instead of trading into highs or sideways action. I’ve alluded to what I wouldn’t want to see over the last week and a half if we want to stay bullish, nothing has changed with those ideas shared in X community and paid subscriber analysis.

Mostly will be watching our VIX pivots and sectors for specific hints as I do think the quality and style of trades may start to shift depending on where you are looking to position in the SP500. For Elliot Wave, no clear wave count update under the monthly and weekly timeframes, Why I am compelled to take vacation while I await a clear edge and structure for trying to predict price action. No shade to day traders and momentum traders on smaller timeframes, but I would rather save that energy and mental capacity to start Q3 strong and confident.

Have a great trading week and keep a look out for the few updates I do send out in Substack chat, discord, and on X.

Levels Update